In short: Markets now assign only about a 10% chance to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the 28 October 2026 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool as reported by KuCoin on 24 October 2026 and TokenPost the same day. An October move has faded from the picture; a December hike remains the base case, with Goldman Sachs chief US economist David Mericle seeing a possible pattern of quarter-point increases at every other meeting — December, then March 2027. The shift comes days before the decision, with sticky inflation, cooling housing and energy prices near recent highs shaping the backdrop. This article is general market news, not financial advice.
October odds collapse, December stays the base case
The numbers are stark. KuCoin, citing BlockBeats news on 24 October 2026, reported that the CME FedWatch tool shows the market assigning only about a 10% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in October. TokenPost's report of the same day put it the same way: market pricing assigned about a 10% chance to a 25-basis-point increase on 28 October, while expectations continued to point to a possible move in December. The figure describes market expectations ahead of the meeting; the Fed itself has not announced an October increase.
Both reports noted that some Fed officials have favoured holding rates steady while they assess inflation and the effect of conflict in the Middle East on energy prices. That caution is the through-line of the October story: officials who want more evidence before moving, and a market that has largely stopped expecting them to move now.
The December picture is different. KuCoin reported that despite cooling expectations for October, the market generally anticipates the Fed will raise rates again in December. TokenPost agreed, noting that the market outlook points more strongly to a December move than to an October increase. Mericle's every-other-meeting pattern gives that expectation a shape: a possible hike in December, followed by another in March 2027, after the October meeting passes without a move.
What changed since the last update
This is a new development, not a repeat of last week's story. Our 23 October report on markets rethinking the Fed as Asia wobbled and Treasuries rallied covered a December repricing — the December hike probability slipping from around 91% to around 85% on AI-funding fears. The current story is about October itself: the near-term meeting's hike odds falling to roughly 10%, effectively taking October off the table while leaving December intact as the expected move.
The energy backdrop has also sharpened since then. Our 24 October report on Brent crude topping $116 traced oil's jump on attacks against Saudi energy assets — the kind of Middle East energy shock that both cited reports say officials are watching as they weigh the inflation outlook. A Fed that hikes into an energy spike risks tightening into a shock it did not cause; a Fed that waits risks letting energy-driven inflation embed itself. That tension is why the October decision, even with only a 10% hike probability, still matters.
Housing adds to the case for patience
Cooling housing data strengthens the argument for holding steady in October. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported on 19 October 2026 that its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 29 in October — the lowest reading since June 2012. Mortgage rates climbed well above 7% in recent weeks, NAHB chairman Bill Owens said, while higher gas prices and inflation further weakened buyer traffic. The survey found 43% of builders cutting prices in October, the highest share in the 2020–2026 period, with the average price cut at 6% for a seventh consecutive month.
Housing is one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy, and a 14-year low in builder confidence is the kind of evidence that argues for patience: the transmission of past tightening is still working its way through. It does not settle the December question — if inflation stays sticky, the Fed may still move then — but it helps explain why October, specifically, looks like a hold.
What to watch on 28 October
Both cited reports point to the same second event after the decision itself: the Fed chair's news conference. TokenPost noted that markets will watch for comments on recent inflation, financial conditions and the threshold for further tightening in 2027. KuCoin made the same point, adding that Chair Walsh has consistently avoided providing clear forward guidance — which makes his comments on inflation, financial conditions and the 2027 tightening threshold the main source of new information from the meeting.
The practical read for the week ahead: an October hold is now the overwhelming market expectation, December is the live meeting, and the press conference — not the decision itself — is where any surprise is most likely to come from. If the chair signals a higher bar for December, or a lower one, markets will reprice quickly. Until then, the ~10% October figure stands as the market's verdict on this meeting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the chance of a Fed rate hike on 28 October 2026?
Markets assign only about a 10% chance to a 25-basis-point rate hike at the 28 October 2026 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool as reported by KuCoin and TokenPost on 24 October 2026. The market generally expects the Fed to hold rates steady at this meeting.
When does the market expect the next Fed hike?
December remains the base case. Goldman Sachs chief US economist David Mericle sees a possible pattern of quarter-point increases at every other meeting — a hike in December, followed by another in March 2027, according to both cited reports.
Why are October hike odds so low despite sticky inflation?
Some Fed officials have favoured pausing to assess inflation trends and the impact of Middle East conflicts on energy prices, both reports noted. Cooling housing data — builder confidence at its lowest since June 2012, per the NAHB on 19 October 2026 — also supports waiting, even as December stays in play.
Sources: TokenPost, 24 October 2026; KuCoin (BlockBeats news), 24 October 2026; NAHB, 19 October 2026; Asad Webs, 24 October 2026 (Brent crude background); Asad Webs, 23 October 2026 (prior Fed repricing).
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